FNL predicted table 2026/27
Czech Republic · The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 24 October 2026
- Karvina are the most likely FNL champions, finishing first in 91% of 10,000 simulations (projected 63 points; Dukla Prague next on 4%).
- Kromeriz (88%), Trinec (54%) are more likely than not to finish in the bottom 3 places.
- Biggest move since the previous run: Karvina's title chance rose 15 points to 91%.
| # | Team | P | Pts now | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karvina | 12 | 27 | 6356–69 | 91% | >99% | 0% | 1st (91%) |
| 2 | Dukla Prague | 12 | 21 | 5043–57 | 4% | 73% | <1% | 2nd (34%) |
| 3 | Jihlava | 12 | 23 | 4740–54 | 1% | 49% | <1% | 3rd (18%) |
| 4 | Vlasim | 12 | 18 | 4639–53 | <1% | 46% | <1% | 3rd (16%) |
| 5 | Usti nad Labem | 12 | 19 | 4639–53 | 1% | 43% | <1% | 3rd (15%) |
| 6 | Pribram | 11 | 17 | 4336–51 | <1% | 25% | 2% | 6th (12%) |
| 7 | Taborsko | 12 | 15 | 4336–50 | <1% | 23% | 3% | 7th (12%) |
| 8 | Ostrava B | 12 | 15 | 4134–48 | <1% | 14% | 5% | 9th (11%) |
| 9 | SK Kladno | 12 | 14 | 4033–47 | <1% | 11% | 7% | 9th (11%) |
| 10 | Opava | 12 | 14 | 3831–45 | <1% | 6% | 14% | 11th (12%) |
| 11 | Slavia Prague B | 11 | 13 | 3730–44 | <1% | 5% | 18% | 12th (12%) |
| 12 | Zizkov | 11 | 14 | 3629–44 | <1% | 3% | 24% | 13th (13%) |
| 13 | FK Ceska Lipa | 11 | 12 | 3528–42 | <1% | 2% | 33% | 14th (14%) |
| 14 | Prostejov | 11 | 10 | 3225–39 | 0% | <1% | 50% | 15th (20%) |
| 15 | Trinec | 12 | 11 | 3225–39 | 0% | <1% | 54% | 15th (22%) |
| 16 | Kromeriz | 11 | 6 | 2619–33 | 0% | <1% | 88% | 16th (59%) |
Order = average final points across all simulations. Proj. pts shows the average and the 10th–90th percentile range. Percentages are the share of simulations in which the club finishes in that zone.
How this table is made
Every club gets an attack and a defence rating from a Dixon-Coles model fitted to the league's results (recent matches weigh more). Each of the 147 remaining scheduled fixtures is then played out 10,000 times by sampling a scoreline from the model, and the final table of each run is recorded. Ties are separated by goal difference, then goals scored; head-to-head rules, point deductions and split rounds are not modelled. This is a statistical projection, not a tip.
How good are the model's probabilities? Its match forecasts are scored publicly, every match, on the calibration record.
Use this table
Free to republish with credit and a link to this page (CC BY 4.0). Journalists: contact@football-charts.com for a club-specific version.
