FNL title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Czech Republic · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 24 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Karvina (91%), Dukla Prague (4%), Jihlava (1%). 59 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karvina | 12 | 27 | 6356–69 | 91% | 32 from 18 (1.78/game) |
| Dukla Prague | 12 | 21 | 5043–57 | 4% | 38 from 18 (2.11/game) |
| Jihlava | 12 | 23 | 4740–54 | 1% | 36 from 18 (2.00/game) |
| Usti nad Labem | 12 | 19 | 4639–53 | 1% | 40 from 18 (2.22/game) |
Below 1%: Vlasim, Pribram, Taborsko, Ostrava B, SK Kladno, Opava, Slavia Prague B, Zizkov, FK Ceska Lipa, Prostejov, Trinec, Kromeriz.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 147 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).