Dukla Prague vs Vlasim
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-11 · 18:00 CET
WWDWL
WLWWWThe score model made a Dukla Prague win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dukla Prague 1.83 – 1.23 Vlasim.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dukla Prague win | 51.6% | 52.2% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 25.1% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Vlasim win | 25.7% | 22.7% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 56.9% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.5% | 36.2% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 57.8% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.4% | 39.0% | -3.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dukla Prague 13.2 / Vlasim 41 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.