Zizkov vs Pribram
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-06 · 10:15 CET
LDWWW
WDLDWThe score model made a Pribram win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zizkov 1.23 – 1.40 Pribram.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zizkov win | 33.3% | 36.5% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 27.4% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Pribram win | 41.2% | 36.1% | +5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 56.1% | -7.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 35.4% | -8.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 60.4% | -7.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.2% | 38.5% | +3.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zizkov 38.5 / Pribram 31.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.