Ostrava B vs Kromeriz
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-06 · 14:30 CET
LWDWL
WDDLLThe score model made an Ostrava B win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ostrava B 1.84 – 0.89 Kromeriz.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ostrava B win | 60.0% | 59.3% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.0% | 22.0% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| Kromeriz win | 18.1% | 18.7% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.4% | 62.4% | -11.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.3% | 42.0% | -12.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.4% | 59.8% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 43.4% | -13.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ostrava B 33.9 / Kromeriz 29.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.