Usti nad Labem vs Slavia Prague B
ChNL, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-04 · 18:00 CET
WDLWL
DDLLLThe score model made an Usti nad Labem win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Usti nad Labem 2.25 – 1.36 Slavia Prague B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Usti nad Labem win | 57.8% | 43.9% | +13.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 19.4% | 24.8% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| Slavia Prague B win | 22.8% | 31.3% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.9% | 65.4% | +4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.7% | 45.5% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 66.2% | 66.3% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.5% | 45.3% | +5.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Usti nad Labem 24.5 / Slavia Prague B 35.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.