Zlin vs Hradec Kralove
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-13 · 15:00 CET
LLDLL
DWLLDThe score model made a Hradec Kralove win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 48%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zlin 1.04 – 1.54 Hradec Kralove.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zlin win | 24.7% | 28.0% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 29.0% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Hradec Kralove win | 47.7% | 43.0% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 45.7% | +1.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.9% | 25.6% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.7% | 51.1% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.5% | 31.3% | +3.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zlin 34.4 / Hradec Kralove 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Zlin vs Hradec Kralove in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.