Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
HT Under 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +4.4% at market prices across 71 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Zlin produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 27.9' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Bohemians – Ostrava2026-10-10 16:00Under 2.5Model 62.1%Implied 47.8%▲ +14.2%- Liberec – Slovacko2026-10-11 11:00Under 2.5Model 58.0%Implied 50.8%▲ +7.2%
- Sparta Prague – FK Pardubice2026-10-11 16:00Under 1.5 HTModel 64.5%Implied 60.2%▲ +4.2%
- Zlin – Slavia Prague2026-10-09 16:00FT O3.5Model 45.2%Implied 41.7%▲ +3.5%
- Bohemians – Mlada Boleslav2026-10-14 16:00Under 2.5Model 54.8%Implied 52.9%▲ +1.9%
- Plzen – Mlada Boleslav2026-10-10 13:00Away winModel 20.4%Implied 18.6%▲ +1.8%
- Teplice – Sigma Olomouc2026-10-11 13:00DrawModel 28.3%Implied 29.9%-1.6%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bohemians– Ostrava | 2026-10-10 | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 62.1% | 47.8% | ▲ +14.2% | 2.09 |
| 2 |  Liberec– Slovacko | 2026-10-11 | 11:00 | Under 2.5 | 58.0% | 50.8% | ▲ +7.2% | 1.97 |
| 3 |  Sparta Prague– FK Pardubice | 2026-10-11 | 16:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 64.5% | 60.2% | ▲ +4.2% | 1.66 |
| 4 |  Zlin– Slavia Prague | 2026-10-09 | 16:00 | FT O3.5 | 45.2% | 41.7% | ▲ +3.5% | 2.40 |
| 5 | Bohemians– Mlada Boleslav | 2026-10-14 | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 54.8% | 52.9% | ▲ +1.9% | 1.89 |
| 6 |  Plzen–Mlada Boleslav | 2026-10-10 | 13:00 | Away win | 20.4% | 18.6% | ▲ +1.8% | 5.38 |
| 7 |  Teplice– Sigma Olomouc | 2026-10-11 | 13:00 | Draw | 28.3% | 29.9% | -1.6% | 3.35 |
Add Chance Liga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Chance Liga schedule 10,000 times a day. Slavia Prague win the 2026-2027 title in 96% of them, projecting ~71 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Artis Brno finish in the bottom three in 98% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Prague | 23 | 71 | 64–77 | 96% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Sparta Prague | 15 | 56 | 49–63 | 3% | 88% | — |
| 3 | Liberec | 20 | 54 | 46–61 | 1% | 74% | — |
| 4 | Mlada Boleslav | 17 | 47 | 39–54 | <1% | 27% | <1% |
| 5 | Plzen | 10 | 47 | 39–54 | <1% | 29% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 | Slovacko | 4 | 24 | 18–31 | — | — | 75% |
| 15 | Zlin | 1 | 22 | 15–29 | — | — | 85% |
| 16 |  Artis Brno | 5 | 18 | 12–24 | — | — | 98% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 169 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Chance Liga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Prague | 23 | 18.9 | +4.1 | |
| 2 | Liberec | 20 | 14.0 | +6.0 | |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 17 | 10.4 | +6.6 | |
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc | 16 | 13.5 | +2.5 | |
| 5 | Teplice | 16 | 9.8 | +6.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Artis Brno | 5 | 7.6 | -2.6 | |
| 15 | Slovacko | 4 | 9.9 | -5.9 | |
| 16 | Zlin | 1 | 8.2 | -7.2 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+