Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctBiggest divergence
FK Pardubice – Liberec+10.2%
Under 2.5 · data 61% vs market 51%
Fastest starters
Teplice28%
5 of their 18 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Artis Brno36%
4 of their 11 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+6.1%HT Under 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +6.1% at market prices across 94 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-8.3 ptsZlin produced performances worth 8 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
27%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 26.3' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
FK Pardubice – Liberec2026-10-31 14:00Under 2.5Model 61.3%Implied 51.0%▲ +10.2%- Sigma Olomouc – Brno2026-10-31 17:00Under 1.5 HTModel 75.4%Implied 67.6%▲ +7.8%
- Slovacko – Teplice2026-10-31 14:00Away winModel 41.8%Implied 35.2%▲ +6.6%
- Mlada Boleslav – Hradec Kralove2026-11-01 12:00Under 2.5Model 54.3%Implied 48.3%▲ +6.0%
- Bohemians – Sparta Prague2026-11-01 17:00Under 2.5Model 51.3%Implied 45.7%▲ +5.6%
- Jablonec – Slavia Prague2026-10-31 14:00BTTS: NoModel 50.6%Implied 47.6%▲ +3.0%
- Ostrava – Plzen2026-11-01 14:00Under 2.5Model 46.5%Implied 44.1%▲ +2.4%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FK Pardubice– Liberec | 2026-10-31 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 61.3% | 51.0% | ▲ +10.2% | 1.96 |
| 2 |  Sigma Olomouc– Brno | 2026-10-31 | 17:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 75.4% | 67.6% | ▲ +7.8% | 1.48 |
| 3 |  Slovacko– Teplice | 2026-10-31 | 14:00 | Away win | 41.8% | 35.2% | ▲ +6.6% | 2.84 |
| 4 |  Mlada Boleslav– Hradec Kralove | 2026-11-01 | 12:00 | Under 2.5 | 54.3% | 48.3% | ▲ +6.0% | 2.07 |
| 5 |  Bohemians– Sparta Prague | 2026-11-01 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 | 51.3% | 45.7% | ▲ +5.6% | 2.19 |
| 6 |  Jablonec– Slavia Prague | 2026-10-31 | 14:00 | BTTS: No | 50.6% | 47.6% | ▲ +3.0% | 2.10 |
| 7 |  Ostrava– Plzen | 2026-11-01 | 14:00 | Under 2.5 | 46.5% | 44.1% | ▲ +2.4% | 2.27 |
Add Chance Liga fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Chance Liga schedule 10,000 times a day. Slavia Prague win the 2026-2027 title in 92% of them, projecting ~68 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Zlin finish in the bottom three in 97% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Prague | 28 | 68 | 61–74 | 92% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Sparta Prague | 22 | 57 | 51–64 | 7% | 95% | — |
| 3 | Liberec | 20 | 49 | 42–56 | <1% | 51% | <1% |
| 4 | Plzen | 16 | 47 | 40–54 | <1% | 38% | <1% |
| 5 | Sigma Olomouc | 21 | 47 | 40–53 | <1% | 33% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 |  Artis Brno | 9 | 28 | 21–34 | — | <1% | 69% |
| 15 | Slovacko | 7 | 24 | 18–30 | — | <1% | 88% |
| 16 |  Zlin | 2 | 19 | 13–26 | — | — | 97% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 146 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Chance Liga match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
HT Under 1.5▲ +6.1%
at market prices · 94 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Chance Liga, 2026-2027: across 94 matches the market's prices paid out +6.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▲ +0.2%
at market prices · 94 matcheschart →
Away wins in Chance Liga, 2026-2027: across 94 matches the market's prices paid out +0.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −6.5%
at market prices · 94 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Chance Liga, 2026-2027: across 94 matches the market's prices paid out −6.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −9.1%
at market prices · 94 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Chance Liga, 2026-2027: across 94 matches the market's prices paid out −9.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −9.6%
at market prices · 94 matcheschart →
Draws in Chance Liga, 2026-2027: across 94 matches the market's prices paid out −9.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −17.2%
at market prices · 94 matcheschart →
Home wins in Chance Liga, 2026-2027: across 94 matches the market's prices paid out −17.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −36.3%
at market prices · 94 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Chance Liga, 2026-2027: across 94 matches the market's prices paid out −36.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Prague | 28 | 25.8 | +2.2 | |
| 2 | Sparta Prague | 22 | 23.3 | -1.3 | |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 21 | 14.4 | +6.6 | |
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc | 21 | 18.0 | +3.0 | |
| 5 | Liberec | 20 | 17.4 | +2.6 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Artis Brno | 9 | 9.4 | -0.4 | |
| 15 | Slovacko | 7 | 12.4 | -5.4 | |
| 16 | Zlin | 2 | 10.3 | -8.3 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+