Biggest divergence
Bohemians – Slovacko+12.8%
Under 2.5 · data 64% vs market 52%
Fastest starters
Teplice27%
4 of their 15 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Liberec40%
4 of their 10 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
The outlier
+1.5uBlindly backing ht under 1.5 in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-6.6 ptsZlin produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
27%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Bohemians – Slovacko2026-09-12 13:00Under 2.5 ✓64.3%vs 51.5%▲ +12.8%- Ostrava – FK Pardubice2026-09-13 11:00Under 2.5 ✓57.2%vs 49.8%▲ +7.4%
- Liberec – Mlada Boleslav2026-09-12 13:00Under 1.5 HT ✓70.6%vs 64.9%▲ +5.6%
- Plzen – Sigma Olomouc2026-09-13 13:00Over 1.5 HT ✓43.6%vs 40.5%▲ +3.1%
- Teplice – Slavia Prague2026-09-13 16:00Over 1.5 HT40.7%vs 39.8%▲ +0.9%
- Zlin – Hradec Kralove2026-09-13 13:00Over 1.5 HT34.7%vs 34.4%▲ +0.3%
- Sparta Prague – Jablonec2026-09-12 16:00Over 1.5 HT42.4%vs 42.7%-0.4%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bohemians– Slovacko | 2026-09-12 | 13:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 64.3% | 51.5% | ▲ +12.8% | 1.94 | |
| 2 |  Ostrava– FK Pardubice | 2026-09-13 | 11:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 57.2% | 49.8% | ▲ +7.4% | 2.01 | |
| 3 |  Liberec– Mlada Boleslav | 2026-09-12 | 13:00 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 70.6% | 64.9% | ▲ +5.6% | 1.54 | |
| 4 |  Plzen– Sigma Olomouc | 2026-09-13 | 13:00 | Over 1.5 HT ✓ | 43.6% | 40.5% | ▲ +3.1% | 2.47 | |
| 5 |  Teplice– Slavia Prague | 2026-09-13 | 16:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 40.7% | 39.8% | ▲ +0.9% | 2.51 | |
| 6 |  Zlin– Hradec Kralove | 2026-09-13 | 13:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 34.7% | 34.4% | ▲ +0.3% | 2.91 | |
| 7 |  Sparta Prague– Jablonec | 2026-09-12 | 16:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 42.4% | 42.7% | -0.4% | 2.34 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 11 SeptWe simulate the remaining Chance Liga schedule 10,000 times a day. Slavia Prague win the 2026-2027 title in 94% of them, projecting ~69 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Artis Brno finish in the bottom three in 98% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Prague | 17 | 69 | 61–75 | 94% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Liberec | 16 | 53 | 46–61 | 2% | 66% | — |
| 3 | Sparta Prague | 9 | 53 | 46–61 | 2% | 69% | — |
| 4 | Plzen | 10 | 50 | 42–57 | 1% | 46% | <1% |
| 5 | Brno | 13 | 47 | 40–55 | <1% | 28% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 | Slovacko | 3 | 26 | 19–33 | — | — | 57% |
| 15 | Zlin | 0 | 23 | 16–30 | — | — | 76% |
| 16 |  Artis Brno | 4 | 17 | 11–23 | — | — | 98% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 185 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
</> Embed this table on your site</> Embed this table — free, updates hourly, keep the credit link
<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/czech-republic/chance-liga/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Chance Liga live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/czech-republic/chance-liga">Chance Liga stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Chance Liga match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
HT Under 1.5▲ +1.5u
55 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Chance Liga match in 2026-2027: +1.5 units over 55 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▼ -0.5u
55 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Chance Liga match in 2026-2027: -0.5 units over 55 flat-stake bets.Home wins▼ -4.5u
55 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Chance Liga match in 2026-2027: -4.5 units over 55 flat-stake bets.Away wins▼ -4.7u
55 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Chance Liga match in 2026-2027: -4.7 units over 55 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -9.6u
55 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Chance Liga match in 2026-2027: -9.6 units over 55 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -11.8u
55 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Chance Liga match in 2026-2027: -11.8 units over 55 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -19.4u
55 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Chance Liga match in 2026-2027: -19.4 units over 55 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Slavia Prague | 17 | 14.8 | +2.2 | |
| 2 | Liberec | 16 | 10.1 | +5.9 | |
| 3 | Mlada Boleslav | 14 | 8.2 | +5.8 | |
| 4 | Sigma Olomouc | 13 | 11.4 | +1.6 | |
| 5 | Jablonec | 13 | 10.0 | +3.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Slovacko | 3 | 7.3 | -4.3 | |
| 15 | FK Pardubice | 2 | 8.5 | -6.5 | |
| 16 | Zlin | 0 | 6.6 | -6.6 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+