Teplice vs Slavia Prague
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-13 · 18:00 CET
WLWDL
WWWWDThe score model made a Slavia Prague win the most likely outcome at 64%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Teplice 0.86 – 2.02 Slavia Prague.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teplice win | 14.3% | 17.3% | -3.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.1% | 24.5% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Slavia Prague win | 63.5% | 58.2% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | 54.0% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.5% | 33.3% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% | 52.8% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.4% | 36.3% | +4.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Teplice 43.3 / Slavia Prague 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Teplice vs Slavia Prague in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.