Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-13 · 15:00 CET
DLLWW
WWLDWThe score model made a Plzen win the most likely outcome at 54%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Plzen 1.89 – 1.15 Sigma Olomouc.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plzen win | 53.8% | 58.0% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.1% | 23.0% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Sigma Olomouc win | 22.0% | 19.0% | +3.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.4% | 59.5% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.0% | 38.4% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | 57.6% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.5% | 39.7% | +3.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Plzen 43.4 / Sigma Olomouc 41.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.