Ostrava vs FK Pardubice
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-13 · 13:00 CET
LLDLD
DWWLWThe score model made an Ostrava win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ostrava 1.45 – 0.95 FK Pardubice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ostrava win | 47.6% | 47.3% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.7% | 26.6% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| FK Pardubice win | 23.7% | 26.2% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.9% | 53.3% | -10.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.0% | 32.9% | -10.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.9% | 56.5% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.9% | 36.0% | -11.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ostrava 45 / FK Pardubice 40.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ostrava vs FK Pardubice in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.