Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-12 · 15:00 CET
WWDLL
LWLLWThe score model made a Liberec win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Liberec 1.59 – 1.07 Mlada Boleslav.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberec win | 48.4% | 56.4% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.0% | 23.3% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Mlada Boleslav win | 24.6% | 20.3% | +4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | 58.9% | -9.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.7% | 38.0% | -10.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.3% | 58.0% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.4% | 40.1% | -10.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Liberec 43.3 / Mlada Boleslav 42.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Liberec vs Mlada Boleslav in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.