Bohemians vs Slovacko
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-12 · 15:00 CET
LWLWW
DDLDWThe score model made a Bohemians win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 2:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bohemians 1.25 – 0.88 Slovacko.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians win | 43.9% | 44.1% | -0.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.2% | 27.7% | +3.5% | ✗ |
| Slovacko win | 24.9% | 28.2% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.7% | 51.6% | -15.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.6% | 30.4% | -13.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.7% | 55.9% | -13.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.5% | 34.3% | -5.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bohemians 39.2 / Slovacko 45 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Bohemians vs Slovacko in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.