Jablonec vs Ostrava
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-09 · 17:00 CET
LWLDW
LLLDLThe score model made a Jablonec win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jablonec 1.38 – 1.06 Ostrava.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jablonec win | 43.4% | 50.6% | -7.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.9% | 26.0% | +2.8% | ✗ |
| Ostrava win | 27.8% | 23.3% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 52.8% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 32.1% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% | 55.2% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.7% | 36.1% | -2.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jablonec 42.7 / Ostrava 44.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.