Zlin vs Teplice
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-06 · 15:00 CET
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WWLWDThe score model made a Teplice win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zlin 1.32 – 1.51 Teplice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zlin win | 32.3% | 34.4% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 29.5% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Teplice win | 41.0% | 36.1% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 45.8% | +8.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 25.7% | +5.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 52.0% | +6.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 31.2% | +4.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zlin 33.9 / Teplice 42.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.