Mlada Boleslav vs Ostrava
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-06 · 13:00 CET
WWLWL
LLLDLThe score model made a Mlada Boleslav win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mlada Boleslav 1.42 – 1.25 Ostrava.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mlada Boleslav win | 40.2% | 42.7% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 26.8% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Ostrava win | 32.1% | 30.5% | +1.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 57.6% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.9% | 37.0% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 60.8% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 38.9% | -4.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mlada Boleslav 42 / Ostrava 43.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.