Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians
Chance Liga, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-05 · 15:00 CET
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DLWLWThe score model made a Sigma Olomouc win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sigma Olomouc 1.44 – 0.94 Bohemians.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sigma Olomouc win | 47.9% | 55.7% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.4% | 24.0% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Bohemians win | 23.7% | 20.3% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.6% | 56.2% | -13.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.8% | 34.9% | -13.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.4% | 55.7% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 37.9% | -8.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sigma Olomouc 41.4 / Bohemians 38.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.