Zapy vs Varnsdorf
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-12 · 17:00 CET
WWDLW
LDDWLThe score model made a Zapy win the most likely outcome at 75%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 70%). It finished 4:4 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zapy 2.71 – 0.89 Varnsdorf.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zapy win | 75.4% | 59.3% | +16.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 15.2% | 21.2% | -6.1% | ✓ |
| Varnsdorf win | 9.4% | 19.5% | -10.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.8% | 59.9% | +9.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 86.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 57.3% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zapy 41.5 / Varnsdorf 24.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Zapy vs Varnsdorf in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.