Jablonec B vs Mlada Boleslav B
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-13 · 10:15 CET
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WWDWWThe score model made a Jablonec B win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Jablonec B 1.57 – 1.41 Mlada Boleslav B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jablonec B win | 40.8% | 41.9% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.0% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Mlada Boleslav B win | 33.8% | 33.1% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.2% | 62.2% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.8% | 42.6% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | 64.8% | -4.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.0% | 43.4% | -6.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Jablonec B 42.5 / Mlada Boleslav B 42.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Jablonec B vs Mlada Boleslav B in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.