Neratovice vs Banik Most-Sous
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-12 · 10:15 CET
LDLWW
LLLDWThe score model made a Banik Most-Sous win the most likely outcome at 58%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Neratovice 0.98 – 1.89 Banik Most-Sous.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neratovice win | 18.6% | 30.2% | -11.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.2% | 25.9% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Banik Most-Sous win | 58.3% | 43.9% | +14.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.7% | 55.2% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.4% | 34.5% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.5% | 58.5% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.8% | 37.3% | -3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Neratovice 26.3 / Banik Most-Sous 42.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Neratovice vs Banik Most-Sous in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.