Mlada Boleslav B vs Zapy
3. CFL - Group B, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-05 · 10:15 CET
DWWDW
WWWDLThe score model made a Zapy win the most likely outcome at 50%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mlada Boleslav B 1.13 – 1.69 Zapy.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mlada Boleslav B win | 25.0% | 35.0% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 26.6% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Zapy win | 50.0% | 38.3% | +11.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | 58.3% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.4% | 38.3% | -7.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 55.8% | 61.7% | -5.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.3% | 36.9% | +1.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mlada Boleslav B 42.1 / Zapy 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.