Domazlice vs Motorlet Prague
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-12 · 17:00 CET
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DWWLDThe score model made a Domazlice win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 5:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Domazlice 1.96 – 1.00 Motorlet Prague.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domazlice win | 59.3% | 58.6% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.3% | 21.5% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Motorlet Prague win | 18.4% | 19.8% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 60.8% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.4% | 40.2% | -5.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 58.1% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.5% | 42.8% | -10.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Domazlice 41.9 / Motorlet Prague 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Domazlice vs Motorlet Prague in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.