Motorlet Prague vs Aritma Prague
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-05 · 10:15 CET
LDWWL
LLWDDThe score model made a Motorlet Prague win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 4:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Motorlet Prague 1.19 – 1.00 Aritma Prague.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motorlet Prague win | 39.9% | 55.5% | -15.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.8% | 24.9% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Aritma Prague win | 30.3% | 19.6% | +10.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.3% | 50.9% | -13.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.8% | 30.9% | -13.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.2% | 50.7% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 35.2% | -7.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Motorlet Prague 41.4 / Aritma Prague 24.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.