Kraluv Dvur vs Domazlice
3. CFL - Group A, Czech-Republic · 2026-09-05 · 17:00 CET
LWWWW
WWWDDThe score model made a Domazlice win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 74%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kraluv Dvur 1.61 – 2.27 Domazlice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraluv Dvur win | 27.0% | 35.7% | -8.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 20.4% | 24.1% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Domazlice win | 52.5% | 40.2% | +12.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.3% | 64.3% | +10.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54.2% | 44.3% | +9.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 71.9% | 67.0% | +4.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.6% | 44.4% | -0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kraluv Dvur 31.6 / Domazlice 41.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.