Henan Songshan Longmen vs Chengdu Rongcheng
Super League, China · 2026-09-06 · 13:35 CET
DDDDD
WLWDLThe score model made a Chengdu Rongcheng win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Henan Songshan Longmen 1.20 – 1.53 Chengdu Rongcheng.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henan Songshan Longmen win | 29.2% | 37.3% | -8.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.0% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Chengdu Rongcheng win | 44.3% | 35.7% | +8.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 58.2% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.4% | 37.9% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.5% | 62.1% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.7% | 40.3% | -9.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Henan Songshan Longmen 44.6 / Chengdu Rongcheng 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.