Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctThe season in numbers
Draws paid out more than the market charged: +0.4% at market prices across 232 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Henan Songshan Longmen produced performances worth 10 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31' on average.
Add Super League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Super League schedule 10,000 times a day. Beijing Guoan win the 2026 title in 76% of them, projecting ~54 points; Chengdu Rongcheng are next at 18%. At the other end, Wuhan Three Towns finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Beijing Guoan's title chance down 1 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Beijing Guoan | 52 | 54 | 52–55 | ▼76% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Chengdu Rongcheng | 52 | 53 | 52–55 | ▲18% | >99% | — |
| 3 | Shandong Taishan | 50 | 52 | 50–53 | 7% | 78% | — |
| 4 |  Dalian Yingbo | 49 | 51 | 49–52 | — | 46% | — |
| 5 |  Shanghai Port | 47 | 49 | 47–50 | — | 47% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 | Liaoning Tieren | 29 | 30 | 29–32 | — | — | 95% |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 27 | 28 | 27–30 | — | — | >99% |
| 16 |  Qingdao Hainiu | 21 | 22 | 21–24 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 8 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Super League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beijing Guoan | 52 | 50.7 | +1.3 | |
| 2 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 52 | 52.9 | -0.9 | |
| 3 | Shandong Taishan | 50 | 46.6 | +3.4 | |
| 4 | Dalian Yingbo | 49 | 40.9 | +8.1 | outperformed expectations |
| 5 | Shanghai Port | 47 | 44.9 | +2.1 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Liaoning Tieren | 29 | 35.4 | -6.4 | |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 27 | 31.4 | -4.4 | |
| 16 | Qingdao Hainiu | 21 | 25.5 | -4.5 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisBeijing Guoan52 ptsChengdu Rongcheng52 ptsShandong Taishan50 ptsDalian Yingbo49 ptsShanghai Port47 pts
Shanghai Shenhua47 pts
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger41 pts
Yunnan Yukun40 pts
Zhejiang Professional39 pts
Qingdao West Coast39 ptsChongqing Tonglianglong36 pts
Henan Songshan Longmen34 pts
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng32 ptsLiaoning Tieren29 ptsWuhan Three Towns27 ptsQingdao Hainiu21 ptsGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+