Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctBiggest divergence
Qingdao Hainiu – Beijing Guoan+6.8%
Under 1.5 HT · data 66% vs market 60%
Fastest starters
Shandong Taishan20%
9 of their 46 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Chengdu Rongcheng37%
19 of their 51 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+3.5%Draws paid out more than the market charged: +3.5% at market prices across 208 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-6.8 ptsHenan Songshan Longmen produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
38%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.9' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Qingdao Hainiu – Beijing Guoan2026-10-09 11:35Under 1.5 HTModel 66.3%Implied 59.5%▲ +6.8%- Qingdao West Coast – Dalian Yingbo2026-10-11 10:00Home winModel 45.6%Implied 38.9%▲ +6.7%
- Chengdu Rongcheng – Tianjin Jinmen Tiger2026-10-10 11:35Under 2.5Model 50.6%Implied 47.4%▲ +3.2%
- Shanghai Shenhua – Yunnan Yukun2026-10-10 11:35Over 1.5 HTModel 59.8%Implied 58.5%▲ +1.3%
- Zhejiang Professional – Shanghai Port2026-10-09 12:00Away winModel 41.2%Implied 43.3%-2.1%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Qingdao Hainiu– Beijing Guoan | 2026-10-09 | 11:35 | Under 1.5 HT | 66.3% | 59.5% | ▲ +6.8% | 1.68 |
| 2 |  Qingdao West Coast– Dalian Yingbo | 2026-10-11 | 10:00 | Home win | 45.6% | 38.9% | ▲ +6.7% | 2.57 |
| 3 |  Chengdu Rongcheng– Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 2026-10-10 | 11:35 | Under 2.5 | 50.6% | 47.4% | ▲ +3.2% | 2.11 |
| 4 |  Shanghai Shenhua– Yunnan Yukun | 2026-10-10 | 11:35 | Over 1.5 HT | 59.8% | 58.5% | ▲ +1.3% | 1.71 |
| 5 |  Zhejiang Professional– Shanghai Port | 2026-10-09 | 12:00 | Away win | 41.2% | 43.3% | -2.1% | 2.31 |
Add Super League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctWe simulate the remaining Super League schedule 10,000 times a day. Chengdu Rongcheng win the 2026 title in 98% of them, projecting ~59 points — the race is close to decided. At the other end, Qingdao Hainiu finish in the bottom three in 98% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Rongcheng | 52 | 59 | 56–62 | 98% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Beijing Guoan | 43 | 51 | 47–53 | 1% | 94% | — |
| 3 | Shandong Taishan | 43 | 49 | 46–53 | <1% | 80% | — |
| 4 |  Shanghai Shenhua | 41 | 49 | 45–51 | <1% | 76% | — |
| 5 |  Dalian Yingbo | 40 | 45 | 42–48 | — | 12% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 30 | 27–33 | — | — | 72% |
| 15 | Liaoning Tieren | 25 | 30 | 26–33 | — | — | 82% |
| 16 |  Qingdao Hainiu | 21 | 26 | 23–29 | — | — | 98% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 32 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Super League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +3.5%
at market prices · 208 matcheschart →
Draws in Super League, 2026: across 208 matches the market's prices paid out +3.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −3.3%
at market prices · 208 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Super League, 2026: across 208 matches the market's prices paid out −3.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −5.0%
at market prices · 208 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Super League, 2026: across 208 matches the market's prices paid out −5.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −7.0%
at market prices · 208 matcheschart →
Home wins in Super League, 2026: across 208 matches the market's prices paid out −7.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −10.9%
at market prices · 208 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Super League, 2026: across 208 matches the market's prices paid out −10.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −15.6%
at market prices · 208 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Super League, 2026: across 208 matches the market's prices paid out −15.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −16.1%
at market prices · 208 matcheschart →
Away wins in Super League, 2026: across 208 matches the market's prices paid out −16.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 52 | 48.3 | +3.7 | |
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 43 | 44.9 | -1.9 | |
| 3 | Shandong Taishan | 43 | 41.5 | +1.5 | |
| 4 | Shanghai Shenhua | 41 | 44.8 | -3.8 | |
| 5 | Dalian Yingbo | 40 | 36.7 | +3.3 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 28.4 | -2.4 | |
| 15 | Liaoning Tieren | 25 | 30.0 | -5.0 | |
| 16 | Qingdao Hainiu | 21 | 24.1 | -3.1 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisChengdu Rongcheng52 ptsBeijing Guoan43 ptsShandong Taishan43 ptsShanghai Shenhua41 ptsDalian Yingbo40 pts
Shanghai Port38 pts
Yunnan Yukun38 pts
Qingdao West Coast38 pts
Zhejiang Professional36 pts
Tianjin Jinmen Tiger35 pts
Henan Songshan Longmen33 ptsChongqing Tonglianglong31 pts
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng28 ptsWuhan Three Towns26 ptsLiaoning Tieren25 ptsQingdao Hainiu21 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+