Super League title race 2026: who will win the league?
China · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 22 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Chengdu Rongcheng (74%), Beijing Guoan (21%), Shanghai Shenhua (4%). 55 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chengdu Rongcheng | 28 | 52 | 5553–58 | 74% | 3 from 2 (1.50/game) |
| Beijing Guoan | 28 | 49 | 5350–55 | 21% | 6 from 2 (3.00/game) |
| Shanghai Shenhua | 28 | 47 | 5148–53 | 4% | 8 from 2 (4.00/game) |
| Shandong Taishan | 28 | 47 | 5048–53 | 1% | 8 from 2 (4.00/game) |
Below 1%: Dalian Yingbo, Shanghai Port, Tianjin Jinmen Tiger, Yunnan Yukun, Qingdao West Coast, Zhejiang Professional, Henan Songshan Longmen, Chongqing Tonglianglong, Shenzhen Xinpengcheng, Liaoning Tieren, Wuhan Three Towns, Qingdao Hainiu.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 16 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).