Super League predicted table 2026
China · The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 22 October 2026
- Chengdu Rongcheng are the most likely Super League champions, finishing first in 74% of 10,000 simulations (projected 55 points; Beijing Guoan next on 21%).
- Qingdao Hainiu (>99%), Wuhan Three Towns (85%), Shenzhen Xinpengcheng (64%), Liaoning Tieren (50%) are more likely than not to finish in the bottom 3 places.
- Biggest move since the previous run: Chengdu Rongcheng's title chance fell 1 points to 74%.
| # | Team | P | Pts now | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 28 | 52 | 5553–58 | 74% | >99% | 0% | 1st (74%) |
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 28 | 49 | 5350–55 | 21% | 98% | 0% | 2nd (50%) |
| 3 | Shanghai Shenhua | 28 | 47 | 5148–53 | 4% | 88% | 0% | 3rd (43%) |
| 4 | Shandong Taishan | 28 | 47 | 5048–53 | 1% | 69% | 0% | 4th (38%) |
| 5 | Dalian Yingbo | 28 | 46 | 4846–50 | 0% | 19% | 0% | 6th (44%) |
| 6 | Shanghai Port | 28 | 44 | 4845–50 | 0% | 26% | 0% | 6th (35%) |
| 7 | Tianjin Jinmen Tiger | 28 | 41 | 4441–47 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 7th (59%) |
| 8 | Yunnan Yukun | 28 | 39 | 4240–45 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 8th (44%) |
| 9 | Qingdao West Coast | 28 | 38 | 4038–42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10th (37%) |
| 10 | Zhejiang Professional | 28 | 36 | 3936–42 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9th (34%) |
| 11 | Henan Songshan Longmen | 28 | 34 | 3634–38 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 11th (41%) |
| 12 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 28 | 33 | 3633–37 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 12th (52%) |
| 13 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 28 | 29 | 3129–33 | 0% | 0% | 64% | 14th (44%) |
| 14 | Liaoning Tieren | 28 | 29 | 3129–33 | 0% | 0% | 50% | 13th (46%) |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 28 | 27 | 2927–31 | 0% | 0% | 85% | 15th (64%) |
| 16 | Qingdao Hainiu | 28 | 21 | 2321–25 | 0% | 0% | >99% | 16th (>99%) |
Order = average final points across all simulations. Proj. pts shows the average and the 10th–90th percentile range. Percentages are the share of simulations in which the club finishes in that zone.
How this table is made
Every club gets an attack and a defence rating from a Dixon-Coles model fitted to the league's results (recent matches weigh more). Each of the 16 remaining scheduled fixtures is then played out 10,000 times by sampling a scoreline from the model, and the final table of each run is recorded. Ties are separated by goal difference, then goals scored; head-to-head rules, point deductions and split rounds are not modelled. This is a statistical projection, not a tip.
How good are the model's probabilities? Its match forecasts are scored publicly, every match, on the calibration record.
Use this table
Free to republish with credit and a link to this page (CC BY 4.0). Journalists: contact@football-charts.com for a club-specific version.
