Wuhan Three Towns vs Qingdao West Coast
Super League, China · 2026-09-05 · 13:00 CET
DWDDL
DDWDDThe score model made a Wuhan Three Towns win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 2:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wuhan Three Towns 1.36 – 1.19 Qingdao West Coast.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wuhan Three Towns win | 40.3% | 44.1% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.1% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Qingdao West Coast win | 32.2% | 29.8% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.8% | 56.6% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.3% | 35.4% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 59.6% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.4% | 38.5% | -8.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wuhan Three Towns 43.7 / Qingdao West Coast 40.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.