Dalian Yingbo vs Qingdao Hainiu
Super League, China · 2026-09-05 · 13:35 CET
LDWDW
LLLLLThe score model made a Dalian Yingbo win the most likely outcome at 52%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Dalian Yingbo 1.68 – 1.04 Qingdao Hainiu.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalian Yingbo win | 51.9% | 69.3% | -17.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.0% | 18.3% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Qingdao Hainiu win | 23.1% | 12.4% | +10.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 62.5% | -11.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.0% | 42.0% | -12.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 53.1% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.8% | 43.2% | -10.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Dalian Yingbo 34.4 / Qingdao Hainiu 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.