Genk vs Gent
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-09-13 · 16:00 CET
WDDLW
WWDWWThe score model made a Genk win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Genk 1.58 – 1.19 Gent.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genk win | 45.6% | 44.1% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 28.2% | -1.8% | ✓ |
| Gent win | 28.0% | 27.7% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.4% | 50.7% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.3% | 29.6% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.1% | 55.2% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.9% | 34.8% | +1.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Genk 44.9 / Gent 45 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Genk vs Gent in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.