Biggest divergence
RAAL La Louviere – Kortrijk+8.1%
Home win · data 51% vs market 43%
Fastest starters
Genk25%
3 of their 12 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
St. Truiden42%
5 of their 12 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
The outlier
+6.3uBlindly backing over 2.5 goals in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-4.9 ptsLeuven produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
42%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.3' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
RAAL La Louviere – Kortrijk2026-09-13 17:15Home win51.2%vs 43.1%▲ +8.1%- Westerlo – St. Liege2026-09-12 16:15Under 2.5 ✓51.0%vs 43.1%▲ +7.9%
- Leuven – Cercle Brugge KSV2026-09-12 18:45Under 2.5 ✓52.7%vs 45.0%▲ +7.6%
- Club Brugge KV – Antwerp2026-09-13 11:30FT U3.5 ✓61.9%vs 56.5%▲ +5.4%
- Waregem – Charleroi2026-09-13 16:30Home win ✓44.6%vs 39.5%▲ +5.1%
- Genk – Gent2026-09-13 14:00Away win28.5%vs 27.5%▲ +1.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  RAAL La Louviere– Kortrijk | 2026-09-13 | 17:15 | Home win | 51.2% | 43.1% | ▲ +8.1% | 2.32 | |
| 2 |  Westerlo– St. Liege | 2026-09-12 | 16:15 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 51.0% | 43.1% | ▲ +7.9% | 2.32 | |
| 3 |  Leuven– Cercle Brugge KSV | 2026-09-12 | 18:45 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 52.7% | 45.0% | ▲ +7.6% | 2.22 | |
| 4 |  Club Brugge KV– Antwerp | 2026-09-13 | 11:30 | FT U3.5 ✓ | 61.9% | 56.5% | ▲ +5.4% | 1.77 | |
| 5 |  Waregem– Charleroi | 2026-09-13 | 16:30 | Home win ✓ | 44.6% | 39.5% | ▲ +5.1% | 2.53 | |
| 6 |  Genk– Gent | 2026-09-13 | 14:00 | Away win | 28.5% | 27.5% | ▲ +1.0% | 3.63 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 10 AugWe simulate the remaining Jupiler Pro League schedule 10,000 times a day. Club Brugge KV win the 2026-2027 title in 52% of them, projecting ~66 points; Royale Union SG are next at 44%. At the other end, Lommel SK finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Brugge KV | 3 | 66 | 58–75 | 52% | 98% | — |
| 2 |  Royale Union SG | 3 | 65 | 57–73 | 44% | 98% | — |
| 3 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 50 | 41–59 | 1% | 40% | <1% |
| 4 | Genk | 0 | 49 | 40–58 | <1% | 35% | <1% |
| 5 | Gent | 3 | 48 | 39–57 | <1% | 30% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | RAAL La Louviere | 0 | 33 | 25–42 | — | <1% | 34% |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 0 | 26 | 18–34 | — | — | 77% |
| 18 | Lommel SK | 1 | 1 | 1–1 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 264 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Jupiler Pro League match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Over 2.5 goals▲ +6.3u
45 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Jupiler Pro League match in 2026-2027: +6.3 units over 45 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▲ +2.1u
45 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Jupiler Pro League match in 2026-2027: +2.1 units over 45 flat-stake bets.Home wins▼ -2.2u
45 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Jupiler Pro League match in 2026-2027: -2.2 units over 45 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -5.8u
45 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Jupiler Pro League match in 2026-2027: -5.8 units over 45 flat-stake bets.Away wins▼ -9.3u
45 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Jupiler Pro League match in 2026-2027: -9.3 units over 45 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -11.7u
45 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Jupiler Pro League match in 2026-2027: -11.7 units over 45 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -12.3u
45 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Jupiler Pro League match in 2026-2027: -12.3 units over 45 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 15 | 7.5 | +7.5 | |
| 2 | Royale Union SG | 13 | 9.5 | +3.5 | |
| 3 | Club Brugge KV | 12 | 11.3 | +0.7 | |
| 4 | Charleroi | 12 | 8.1 | +3.9 | |
| 5 | Waregem | 11 | 6.3 | +4.7 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | RAAL La Louviere | 1 | 5.2 | -4.2 | |
| 17 | Leuven | 0 | 4.9 | -4.9 | |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 0 | 4.8 | -4.8 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+