Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctBiggest divergence
Royale Union SG – Leuven+12.1%
FT U3.5 · data 72% vs market 60%
Fastest starters
Genk31%
4 of their 13 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
St. Liege46%
6 of their 13 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+3.0%Home wins paid out more than the market charged: +3.0% at market prices across 63 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-5.4 ptsKV Mechelen produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
38%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.2' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Royale Union SG – Leuven2026-10-11 14:00FT U3.5Model 71.6%Implied 59.5%▲ +12.1%- St. Liege – Charleroi2026-10-11 11:30Under 2.5Model 60.1%Implied 50.8%▲ +9.4%
- Westerlo – Antwerp2026-10-11 16:30FT U3.5Model 66.6%Implied 60.2%▲ +6.3%
- Genk – Kortrijk2026-10-10 18:45BTTS: NoModel 55.3%Implied 49.0%▲ +6.3%
- Cercle Brugge KSV – Anderlecht2026-10-10 14:00Home winModel 34.4%Implied 29.3%▲ +5.0%
- KV Mechelen – St. Truiden2026-10-11 17:15Home winModel 34.8%Implied 31.7%▲ +3.0%
- Waregem – Gent2026-10-10 18:45Home winModel 37.9%Implied 35.3%▲ +2.6%
- RAAL La Louviere – Club Brugge KV2026-10-10 16:15FT U3.5Model 61.3%Implied 60.6%▲ +0.7%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Royale Union SG– Leuven | 2026-10-11 | 14:00 | FT U3.5 | 71.6% | 59.5% | ▲ +12.1% | 1.68 |
| 2 |  St. Liege– Charleroi | 2026-10-11 | 11:30 | Under 2.5 | 60.1% | 50.8% | ▲ +9.4% | 1.97 |
| 3 |  Westerlo– Antwerp | 2026-10-11 | 16:30 | FT U3.5 | 66.6% | 60.2% | ▲ +6.3% | 1.66 |
| 4 |  Genk– Kortrijk | 2026-10-10 | 18:45 | BTTS: No | 55.3% | 49.0% | ▲ +6.3% | 2.04 |
| 5 |  Cercle Brugge KSV– Anderlecht | 2026-10-10 | 14:00 | Home win | 34.4% | 29.3% | ▲ +5.0% | 3.41 |
| 6 |  KV Mechelen– St. Truiden | 2026-10-11 | 17:15 | Home win | 34.8% | 31.7% | ▲ +3.0% | 3.15 |
| 7 |  Waregem– Gent | 2026-10-10 | 18:45 | Home win | 37.9% | 35.3% | ▲ +2.6% | 2.83 |
| 8 |  RAAL La Louviere– Club Brugge KV | 2026-10-10 | 16:15 | FT U3.5 | 61.3% | 60.6% | ▲ +0.7% | 1.65 |
Add Jupiler Pro League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Jupiler Pro League schedule 10,000 times a day. Royale Union SG win the 2026-2027 title in 62% of them, projecting ~77 points; Club Brugge KV are next at 37%. At the other end, Kortrijk finish in the bottom three in 97% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royale Union SG | 19 | 77 | 69–84 | 62% | >99% | — |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 18 | 74 | 66–82 | 37% | 99% | — |
| 3 | Gent | 19 | 60 | 52–69 | 1% | 71% | — |
| 4 | Charleroi | 18 | 55 | 47–64 | <1% | 39% | <1% |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 13 | 53 | 45–62 | <1% | 27% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Leuven | 4 | 32 | 25–40 | — | <1% | 50% |
| 17 | RAAL La Louviere | 4 | 30 | 22–38 | — | — | 66% |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 3 | 21 | 15–28 | — | — | 97% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 243 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Jupiler Pro League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Home wins▲ +3.0%
at market prices · 63 matcheschart →
Home wins in Jupiler Pro League, 2026-2027: across 63 matches the market's prices paid out +3.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▲ +2.4%
at market prices · 63 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Jupiler Pro League, 2026-2027: across 63 matches the market's prices paid out +2.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −5.2%
at market prices · 63 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Jupiler Pro League, 2026-2027: across 63 matches the market's prices paid out −5.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −6.0%
at market prices · 63 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Jupiler Pro League, 2026-2027: across 63 matches the market's prices paid out −6.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −13.2%
at market prices · 63 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Jupiler Pro League, 2026-2027: across 63 matches the market's prices paid out −13.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −27.0%
at market prices · 63 matcheschart →
Away wins in Jupiler Pro League, 2026-2027: across 63 matches the market's prices paid out −27.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −31.7%
at market prices · 63 matcheschart →
Draws in Jupiler Pro League, 2026-2027: across 63 matches the market's prices paid out −31.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Royale Union SG | 19 | 13.9 | +5.1 | |
| 2 | Gent | 19 | 10.5 | +8.5 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | Club Brugge KV | 18 | 15.8 | +2.2 | |
| 4 | Charleroi | 18 | 11.5 | +6.5 | |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 13 | 11.7 | +1.3 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Cercle Brugge KSV | 3 | 8.3 | -5.3 | |
| 17 | KV Mechelen | 3 | 8.4 | -5.4 | |
| 18 | Kortrijk | 3 | 7.3 | -4.3 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+