Westerlo vs St. Liege
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-09-12 · 18:15 CET
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WWLLLThe score model made a Westerlo win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 4:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Westerlo 1.40 – 1.24 St. Liege.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Westerlo win | 39.9% | 38.7% | +1.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 26.5% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| St. Liege win | 32.6% | 34.9% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 58.7% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.2% | 38.0% | -10.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% | 62.8% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.3% | 40.6% | -5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Westerlo 45 / St. Liege 45 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Westerlo vs St. Liege in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.