Leuven vs Cercle Brugge KSV
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-09-12 · 20:45 CET
LLDWD
LLDLLThe score model made a Cercle Brugge KSV win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leuven 1.26 – 1.30 Cercle Brugge KSV.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leuven win | 35.0% | 37.7% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.1% | 26.4% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Cercle Brugge KSV win | 36.9% | 35.9% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 59.3% | -12.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | 38.2% | -12.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 62.5% | -9.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.3% | 40.1% | -6.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Leuven 45 / Cercle Brugge KSV 41.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Leuven vs Cercle Brugge KSV in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.