KV Mechelen vs Anderlecht
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-09-11 · 20:45 CET
DLLDW
WDWWWThe score model made an Anderlecht win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: KV Mechelen 1.35 – 1.48 Anderlecht.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen win | 33.7% | 21.0% | +12.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.6% | 24.9% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Anderlecht win | 39.7% | 54.2% | -14.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.8% | 55.2% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.5% | 34.3% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.0% | 55.9% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 38.4% | -0.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: KV Mechelen 45.1 / Anderlecht 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.