Kortrijk vs Waregem
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-09-06 · 16:00 CET
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DWLLLThe score model made a Waregem win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 55%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kortrijk 1.03 – 1.84 Waregem.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kortrijk win | 20.3% | 30.0% | -9.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 27.5% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Waregem win | 55.6% | 42.5% | +13.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | 52.5% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.3% | 31.9% | +0.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.7% | 57.1% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.8% | 36.7% | -0.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kortrijk 19.2 / Waregem 28.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.