Cercle Brugge KSV vs Gent
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-09-06 · 13:30 CET
LDDLL
DLWWWThe score model makes a Gent win the most likely outcome at 37%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cercle Brugge KSV 1.38 – 1.41 Gent.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge KSV win | 35.7% | — | — |
| Draw | 27.1% | — | — |
| Gent win | 37.3% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.8% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.6% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.9% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cercle Brugge KSV 41.9 / Gent 44.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.