Cercle Brugge KSV vs Gent
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-09-06 · 13:30 CET
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WWDWWThe score model made a Gent win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cercle Brugge KSV 1.36 – 1.41 Gent.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge KSV win | 35.4% | 32.4% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 27.4% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Gent win | 37.7% | 40.2% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 52.8% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.1% | 31.9% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 57.4% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.1% | 36.3% | +3.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cercle Brugge KSV 41.4 / Gent 44.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.