Anderlecht vs Genk
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-09-06 · 18:30 CET
WLWLL
WLWDWThe score model makes an Anderlecht win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Anderlecht 1.60 – 1.48 Genk.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht win | 40.0% | — | — |
| Draw | 25.5% | — | — |
| Genk win | 34.5% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.4% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.0% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 62.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.0% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Anderlecht 44.3 / Genk 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.