St. Liege vs Antwerp
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-09-05 · 20:45 CET
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DLLLLThe score model made a St. Liege win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Liege 1.20 – 1.07 Antwerp.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Liege win | 38.3% | 45.2% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.1% | 27.1% | +3.0% | ✗ |
| Antwerp win | 31.6% | 27.7% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.6% | 53.7% | -14.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 32.5% | -13.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.7% | 57.4% | -10.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.4% | 37.3% | -12.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Liege 44.6 / Antwerp 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.