Charleroi vs Royale Union SG
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-09-05 · 16:00 CET
WLWWW
WWWWDThe score model made a Royale Union SG win the most likely outcome at 51%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). It finished 2:3 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Charleroi 0.79 – 1.41 Royale Union SG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charleroi win | 20.5% | 26.7% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 26.6% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Royale Union SG win | 50.7% | 46.7% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.7% | 52.1% | -14.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.1% | 30.8% | -12.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.1% | 55.5% | -13.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.0% | 35.5% | -8.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Charleroi 44.7 / Royale Union SG 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.