Gent vs Leuven
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-09-03 · 20:30 CET
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LLDWDThe score model made a Gent win the most likely outcome at 55%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gent 1.66 – 0.86 Leuven.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gent win | 55.5% | 56.0% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.0% | 25.4% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Leuven win | 18.5% | 18.6% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 49.3% | -3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.6% | 28.4% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 49.9% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.8% | 33.5% | -2.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gent 44 / Leuven 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.