St. Truiden vs Royale Union SG
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-09-02 · 20:30 CET
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WWWWDThe score model made a Royale Union SG win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Truiden 0.99 – 1.48 Royale Union SG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden win | 24.3% | 26.5% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 26.3% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Royale Union SG win | 47.8% | 47.2% | +0.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 56.9% | -12.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.5% | 35.8% | -12.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | 59.8% | -10.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.4% | 39.0% | -8.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Truiden 44 / Royale Union SG 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.