St. Truiden vs Royale Union SG
Jupiler Pro League, Belgium · 2026-09-02 · 20:30 CET
LWDDW
DWWDWThe score model makes a Royale Union SG win the most likely outcome at 48%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.4% vs 67.0% implied (+9.5 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Truiden 0.99 – 1.48 Royale Union SG.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden win | 24.3% | 26.6% | -2.3% |
| Draw | 28.0% | 26.7% | +1.3% |
| Royale Union SG win | 47.8% | 46.7% | +1.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 53.5% | -8.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.5% | 33.0% | -9.5% |
| Both teams to score | 49.3% | 56.9% | -7.5% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 36.5% | -6.0% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Truiden 44.1 / Royale Union SG 44.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.