RFC Liege vs Patro Eisden
Challenger Pro League, Belgium · 2026-10-25 · 19:15 CET
LDDLL
LLLLWThe score model makes a Patro Eisden win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.0% vs 63.3% implied (+6.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: RFC Liege 1.35 – 1.42 Patro Eisden.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| RFC Liege win | 36.4% | 35.0% | +1.5% |
| Draw | 23.7% | 27.0% | -3.3% |
| Patro Eisden win | 39.8% | 38.0% | +1.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | 56.7% | -4.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 36.7% | -6.7% |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 60.6% | -5.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.6% | 39.2% | -6.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: RFC Liege 36.8 / Patro Eisden 36.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open RFC Liege vs Patro Eisden in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.