Eupen vs Beerschot VA
Challenger Pro League, Belgium · 2026-10-25 · 16:00 CET
LWWWW
WWWWWThe score model makes a Beerschot VA win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 76.2% vs 60.0% implied (+16.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eupen 1.09 – 1.40 Beerschot VA.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eupen win | 30.3% | 33.6% | -3.3% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 27.0% | -2.1% |
| Beerschot VA win | 44.8% | 39.4% | +5.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.5% | 57.5% | -12.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.1% | 37.7% | -13.5% |
| Both teams to score | 49.2% | 61.1% | -11.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.8% | 40.0% | -16.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Eupen 31.4 / Beerschot VA 30.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Eupen vs Beerschot VA in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.