Sporting Lokeren vs Gent U23
Challenger Pro League, Belgium · 2026-10-24 · 20:00 CET
WLLWD
WDLDWThe score model makes a Sporting Lokeren win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 60%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Gent U23 win — 27.4% vs 17.9% implied (+9.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sporting Lokeren 1.83 – 1.28 Gent U23.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Lokeren win | 51.3% | 60.9% | -9.6% |
| Draw | 21.4% | 21.2% | +0.2% |
| Gent U23 win | 27.4% | 17.9% | +9.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 62.5% | -2.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% | 42.7% | -5.0% |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% | 58.4% | +1.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 44.2% | -4.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sporting Lokeren 31.7 / Gent U23 23.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sporting Lokeren vs Gent U23 in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.