Francs Borains vs Dender
Challenger Pro League, Belgium · 2026-10-23 · 20:00 CET
LWWWL
WWWWWThe score model makes a Dender win the most likely outcome at 58%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 58.9% vs 43.0% implied (+15.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Francs Borains 0.75 – 1.57 Dender.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Francs Borains win | 18.6% | 28.6% | -10.0% |
| Draw | 23.6% | 27.3% | -3.7% |
| Dender win | 57.8% | 44.1% | +13.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.1% | 53.0% | -11.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.6% | 33.0% | -12.4% |
| Both teams to score | 41.1% | 57.0% | -15.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 36.5% | -6.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Francs Borains 36 / Dender 12.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Francs Borains vs Dender in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.