Anderlecht U23 vs K. Lierse S.K.
Challenger Pro League, Belgium · 2026-10-23 · 20:00 CET
LDLLL
WDDLWThe score model makes a K. Lierse S.K. win the most likely outcome at 41%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: K. Lierse S.K. win — 41.0% vs 30.0% implied (+11.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Anderlecht U23 1.40 – 1.51 K. Lierse S.K..
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht U23 win | 35.9% | 44.8% | -8.9% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 25.2% | -2.1% |
| K. Lierse S.K. win | 41.0% | 30.0% | +11.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.7% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.3% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.2% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Anderlecht U23 38.7 / K. Lierse S.K. 37.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Anderlecht U23 vs K. Lierse S.K. in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.