Zira vs Qarabag
Premier League, Azerbaijan · 2026-09-13 · 17:00 CET
LWWWL
WWWWWThe score model makes a Qarabag win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zira 0.98 – 1.67 Qarabag.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zira win | 22.8% | — | — |
| Draw | 22.9% | — | — |
| Qarabag win | 54.3% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.5% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.4% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zira 44.7 / Qarabag 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.