Biggest divergence
Araz – Turan Tovuz+8.6%
Home win · data 27% vs market 19%
Fastest starters
Neftci Baku7%
1 of their 15 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Neftci Baku13%
2 of their 15 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
The outlier
+1.4uBlindly backing home wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-3.0 ptsAraz produced performances worth 3 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
35%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 33.2' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Araz – Turan Tovuz2026-09-13 12:30Home win ✓27.5%vs 18.9%▲ +8.6%- Kapaz – Gabala2026-09-12 13:30Away win40.6%vs 39.7%▲ +0.9%
- Zira – Qarabag2026-09-13 15:00BTTS: No50.4%vs 51.5%-1.2%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Araz– Turan Tovuz | 2026-09-13 | 12:30 | Home win ✓ | 27.5% | 18.9% | ▲ +8.6% | 5.29 | |
| 2 |  Kapaz– Gabala | 2026-09-12 | 13:30 | Away win | 40.6% | 39.7% | ▲ +0.9% | 2.52 | |
| 3 |  Zira– Qarabag | 2026-09-13 | 15:00 | BTTS: No | 50.4% | 51.5% | -1.2% | 1.94 |
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Premier League match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Home wins▲ +1.4u
23 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: +1.4 units over 23 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -1.3u
23 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: -1.3 units over 23 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▼ -1.3u
23 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: -1.3 units over 23 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -2.2u
23 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: -2.2 units over 23 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▼ -2.7u
23 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: -2.7 units over 23 flat-stake bets.Away wins▼ -6.3u
23 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: -6.3 units over 23 flat-stake bets.Draws▼ -13.5u
23 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: -13.5 units over 23 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Neftci Baku | 12 | 10.1 | +1.9 | |
| 2 |  Sabah Baku | 9 | 6.3 | +2.7 | |
| 3 | Qarabag | 9 | 5.8 | +3.2 | |
| 4 | Zira | 9 | 6.1 | +2.9 | |
| 5 | Turan Tovuz | 7 | 7.7 | -0.7 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Safa Baku | 3 | 3.8 | -0.8 | |
| 11 | Araz | 1 | 4.0 | -3.0 | |
| 12 |  Sumqayit | 0 | 2.2 | -2.2 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+