Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctThe season in numbers
Every market returned less than it cost this season. The closest, home wins, returned −0.1% at market prices across 34 matches — the bookmaker margin at work.
Gabala produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 35.7' on average.
Add Premier League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 6 OctWe simulate the remaining Premier League schedule 10,000 times a day. Qarabag win the 2026-2027 title in 63% of them, projecting ~75 points; Sabah Baku are next at 32%. At the other end, Safa Baku finish in the bottom three in 79% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Qarabag | 13 | 75 | 67–83 | 63% | >99% | — |
| 2 |  Sabah Baku | 15 | 71 | 63–79 | 32% | 99% | — |
| 3 |  Neftci Baku | 15 | 63 | 54–71 | 4% | 94% | — |
| 4 |  Zira | 10 | 55 | 47–63 | <1% | 63% | <1% |
| 5 |  Turan Tovuz | 11 | 52 | 43–60 | <1% | 38% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 10 |  Gabala | 4 | 31 | 23–39 | — | <1% | 56% |
| 11 |  Imisli FK | 4 | 30 | 23–38 | — | <1% | 59% |
| 12 | Safa Baku | 3 | 27 | 19–34 | — | <1% | 79% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 164 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/azerbaijan/premier-league/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Premier League live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/azerbaijan/premier-league">Premier League stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Premier League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftci Baku | 15 | 12.1 | +2.9 | |
| 2 | Sabah Baku | 15 | 11.1 | +3.9 | |
| 3 | Qarabag | 13 | 11.4 | +1.6 | |
| 4 | Turan Tovuz | 11 | 11.1 | -0.1 | |
| 5 | Zira | 10 | 8.3 | +1.8 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 10 | Safa Baku | 3 | 4.7 | -1.7 | |
| 11 |  Sumqayit | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | |
| 12 |  Araz | 2 | 5.2 | -3.2 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+