Premier Leaguehub →Premier League 2026-2027 Performance vs Market
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Expected points (xPTS) come from pre-match market odds: what the market rated each team's chances at before kickoff. A positive Δ means the team is outperforming those expectations — playing better than the market rated them; a negative Δ means they're delivering less than their billing. Big gaps usually say more about the team than about fortune.
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | vs xPTS | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kapaz | 11 | 17 | 11.9 | +5.1Outperforming ++ | 10 | +3.5 | +1.6 | 1:0 vs Turan Tovuz (+2.2) | 1:4 vs Shamakhi (-1.5) |
2 | Sabah Baku | 7 | 19 | 14.5 | +4.5Outperforming | 6 | +2.3 | +2.2 | 5:0 vs Zira (+1.1) | 0:0 vs Neftci Baku (-0.4) |
3 | Neftci Baku | 12 | 25 | 21.7 | +3.3Outperforming | 1 | +0.9 | +2.4 | 1:3 vs Sumqayit (+1.1) | 1:0 vs Zira (-1.5) |
4 | Turan Tovuz | 11 | 21 | 18.1 | +2.9Outperforming | 4 | +4.7 | -1.8 | 0:1 vs Qarabag (+2.0) | 1:0 vs Imisli FK (-2.0) |
5 | Shamakhi | 11 | 14 | 12.1 | +1.9On expectation | 9 | +1.8 | +0.2 | 1:4 vs Kapaz (+1.8) | 2:1 vs Imisli FK (-1.3) |
6 | Sabah FC | 10 | 21 | 20.0 | +1.0On expectation | 3 | +0.5 | +0.5 | 5:0 vs Zira (+1.1) | 3:2 vs Turan Tovuz (-1.7) |
7 | Zira | 12 | 19 | 18.0 | +1.0On expectation | 5 | +5.3 | -4.3 | 1:0 vs Neftci Baku (+1.8) | 1:0 vs Turan Tovuz (-1.2) |
8 | Imisli FK | 12 | 11 | 10.5 | +0.5On expectation | 13 | +2.4 | -1.9 | 1:0 vs Turan Tovuz (+2.2) | 2:1 vs Gabala (-1.2) |
9 | Qarabag | 10 | 19 | 20.6 | -1.6On expectation | 2 | -0.7 | -0.8 | 3:1 vs Shamakhi (+0.7) | 0:1 vs Turan Tovuz (-1.7) |
10 | Sumqayit | 10 | 10 | 11.8 | -1.8On expectation | 11 | +0.7 | -2.5 | 4:1 vs Gabala (+1.6) | 3:2 vs Zira (-0.9) |
11 | Gabala | 12 | 8 | 13.4 | -5.4Underperforming −− | 7 | -2.6 | -2.8 | 1:2 vs Araz (+1.6) | 0:1 vs Safa Baku (-1.7) |
12 | Safa Baku | 12 | 5 | 10.7 | -5.7Underperforming −− | 12 | -5.2 | -0.4 | 0:1 vs Gabala (+2.0) | 0:1 vs Imisli FK (-1.6) |
13 | Araz | 12 | 4 | 12.2 | -8.2Underperforming −− | 8 | -4.5 | -3.7 | 2:2 vs Turan Tovuz (+0.1) | 0:2 vs Kapaz (-1.6) |